Why Web Does Not Make Sense on TV

This week was very rich for the TV world. It started with GigaOm report about how fast TV apps market will explode and continued with Google I/O conference announcements of Google TV. And I don’t buy both.

What Google Ignores with Google TV

Let me start with a statement – Web does not make sense on TV. I know - it’s quite an opposite of what Google says.

It’s been proven times again and again – first with the WebTV, than with HTPCs. While you can always find a bunch of enthusiasts that will adopt whatever new cool thing is, it will be difficult to convince the rest of the world that Web-on-TV makes sense, as they denied it in the last 15 years.

How often and for how long would you want to work with your remote? Just for the sake of exercise, take any remote and try to type an imaginary text (even with your TV turned off) – will you still be in that comfortable lean back, foot on the table position?

Nobody can beat Google in the search, neither on computer nor on mobile. And in both areas search is the king for everything. It’s just different environment with completely different requirements and habits.

Typing in a search box on the TV oftentimes requires several additional searches:

• Search for the remote (under the couch, on the TV stand, in hands of the kid, under your butt, on the kitchen counter because it was on the tray)
• Search for the paper towel or napkin to wipe off this sandwich oil from the fingers (you do eat in front of the TV, don’t you?)
• Search for the person who will go and fetch the remote (from wherever it is found) and is also ok or comfortable with all this clicking on it
• Search for the reading glasses to be able to find the right buttons. It’s different to push the next channel, volume or even digits on the keypad than to type on the small full QWERTY remote.

Web TV failed not because it wasn’t a good product , but because people really weren’t bought into this “better” web on TV concept. Don’t do better web for TV. Do what makes sense on TV.

General web does not make sense, specific applications designed for consumption on the TV do.

And that only one aspect of how difficult is to people to adopt web-on-TV concept, without even considering the whole complexity of the ecosystem and other powerful players in the field and their stakes (operators, studios, content providers, manufactures, retailers, middleware and chipset vendors, ISPs, etc.).

That’s why I believe this new initiative of Google TV will have a hard time to succeed.

TV Apps Market – how big the opportunity is?

3 days ago GigaOm published their report on TV applications, TV Apps: Evolution from Novelty to Mainstream. In particular, they predicted that TV apps market will grow to almost $2B in the 4 year from virtually zero this year (estimated sales in 2010 are $10M).

While I love GigaOm for their excellent content, this one just didn’t fit well. That growth is a huge bet.
First, it does not make sense from the perspective of the whole ecosystem. While connected TVs are really a cool thing and seems to be an industry direction, in order to achieve these numbers 4 things should happen first:

1. These TVs should be manufactured with more than few default applications preloaded to them
2. These TVs should be sold to the consumers
3. The right set of right applications should be developed
4. These consumers should decide whether to (1) use these applications and (2) pay for them

While (3) and (4) seem obvious, in a context of the TV they have a different meaning, which I will explore later.

The same GigaOm reported just 4 month ago that the Apple AppStore generates about $250M a month, making it $3B a year. Comparing the whole ecosystem for apps on iPhone, Apple brand, existing app market before the emergence of the Apple, globalization of the iPhone, and most importantly, a perfect sense for mobile applications, it makes it a little stretching to assume the TV apps market is in the same ground field. This is my quick sanity check for this prediction.

What Applications Are For TV?

Being in the TV applications space for the last few years, I’m familiar with many solutions and technologies related to the field, from widgets to specific applications and devices. Playing with many of them, I developed a simple set of criteria to decide whether an application is a good fit or not.

I will explore this in my next post.